Deltapoll

There are numerous examples we can outline, but a recent case study relates to our work on behalf of the National Farmers' Union in advance of their 2024 annual conference.

Ahead of the 2024 General Election, the NFU were keen to investigate the views of agricultural communities and more widely the attitudes of the British public towards agricultural issues. To achieve this, the union worked in close partnership with Deltapoll to develop a questionnaire that would be answered by a representative sample of more than 4,000 adults in Britain, including more than 600 from top parliamentary constituencies with the highest NFU membership.

This comparison between the national picture and the results from the NFU heartlands was key to the subsequent analysis.

The results showed that support for the then Conservative government had collapsed. Rishi Sunak’s party trailed Labour in agricultural constituencies, though at 4 points, the gap was noticeably smaller than the 14-point gap nationally.

Going beyond estimates of headline voting intentions was key to the success of the research though – delivering positive messages around support for agricultural communities in order to lay foundations for future, positive government interventions in the sector. So, for example, the research allowed the NFU to disseminate strong results around support for farmers, with a very large majority (94%) saying it was important for the UK government to support British farmers and domestic food production, with the proportion who said it was *very* important being noticeably higher among those from agricultural constituencies.

Similarly, a majority (59%) believed the Tory government had not done enough to support British farmers, with no significant difference among agricultural constituencies. The pitch was thus rolled for an incoming Labour government to support the farming sector, flattered by the impression that Labour held a significant lead over the Conservatives on the question of who would be best for dealing with the concerns of British farmers and domestic food production.

The research also helped outline and influence the policy agenda that agricultural stakeholders wanted the incoming Labour government to implement. This involved message testing and evaluation techniques, therein identifying and promoting attack lines that would deliver most benefit for the sector. For example, ‘Introducing new environmental schemes to help farmers protect the countryside and ensure sustainable, profitable food production’ and ‘Committing to sourcing at least half of the food for schools, prisons, and hospitals from British farms’ were the most widely supported policies tested, both receiving support from a large majority.

At the other end of the scale, only ‘Introducing a tax on meat’ attracted less than majority support – and with only around one in seven showing support. It was at the bottom of the list by some distance - which can easily be seen as a public opinion-based demolition of a problematic possible policy development. This is how polling can have demonstrable and effective outcomes that directly support client messaging.

Using data that went well beyond the findings described above, Joe Twyman, Deltapoll’s co-founder, presented the results to an audience of nearly 1,000 at the NFU’s annual conference, attracting coverage from across the national media, including The Guardian newspaper.

This study was a perfect template for how the union movement can use public opinion polling so effectively that it directly confronts, supports or protects member interests.